Quercus acutifolia

Though the population size of Quercus acutifolia is unknown and the species is not currently considered highly restricted, several factors indicate that a reduction in population size is likely to take place in the near future. First, this species is experiencing low regeneration due to high seedling mortality, which has been attributed to stress from insufficient moisture (Arizaga et al. 2009, Kappelle 2006). If this trend continues, it may lead to a decline in population size as mature trees age and die, if few seedlings survive to replace them.

Second, a recent study, which modelled changes in species distribution under climate change projections for the year 2050, found Q. acutifolia to be highly vulnerable to climate change (Gomez-Mendoza and Arriaga 2007). This study projected that Q. acutifolia may experience a range contraction of 24-41% (32.5% when averaged) based on conservative and severe climate change scenarios, respectively - rates which were among the highest of the 17 oak species examined. It should be noted that these values are based on climate projections for the year 2050, suggesting that if similar trends in climate and species response continue beyond 2050, i.e., 100 years into the future (as described by criterion A3), expected declines in distribution may be greater still.

Given threats to the population size (low regeneration and high seedling mortality) as well as declines in area of occupancy (AOO), extent of occurrence (EOO) and habitat quality due to climate change-driven decreases in suitable habitat, in addition to ongoing destruction of its habitat of oak and pine forests (which continues at a high rate in Mexico and Central America), this species is likely to experience a severe decline in population size within the next 100 years. In light of this, it is reasonable to project a reduction in the population size of Q. acutifolia of at least 30% within the next 100 years. Therefore, Q. acutifolia qualifies as Vulnerable under A3bc.