Chat tigre du sud

Leopardus guttulus population densities vary, but tend to be low throughout most of its range especially in regard to what would be expected of such a small cat species. Given its body size, expected density would be 91/100 km².  Population densities of L. guttulus vary from one to 25/100 km². It is generally around 1-5/100 km² (or even lower) in most of its area of occupancy but can get to 13-25/100 km² in a few isolated high density areas (Oliveira 2011, Oliveira et al. 2013). Higher densities are attained only where Ocelots are absent or very rare. Where Ocelots are common or attain densities of 10/100 km² or higher, the Southern Tiger Cat is extremely rare and is expected to reach numbers much lower than 1-5/100 km². Thus, the Southern Tiger Cat is negatively impacted by Ocelots by interspecific killing due to potential for competition in what is known as the “Ocelot effect” (Oliveira et al. 2010, Oliveira 2011).

The state of Santa Catarina in southern Brazil has been considered the most important area for Leopardus guttulus conservation and thus to harbour the best and likely most viable population. This is due to the extent of the state’s remaining Atlantic Forest, level of connectivity and the cat’s presence in reasonable numbers in local Conservation Units due in most part to the absence of Ocelots (Oliveira et al. 2008). Nevertheless, previous high densities found in some areas there (25/100 km²) seemed to have dropped to 13/100 km² or 7/100 km² in the past few years, likely as a consequence of natural rodent reduction (Oliveira et al. 2013, M. Tortato pers. comm.). Therefore, expected higher densities of this species might be lower than previously thought. Considering all remaining area of natural habitat there and the species densities recorded, population size in Santa Catarina is expected to be around 1,500–2,800 (more likely towards the lower limit). Elsewhere, population reductions of ca. 67% have been observed due to an increase in number of Ocelots (Oliveira 2011, Marques 2013). At other areas, reductions from 20-24/100 km² to 8/100km² have also been noted (Oliveira 2011, Kasper et al. 2015), but not as a consequence of the Ocelot effect.

Likely as a consequence of the Ocelot effect, L. guttulus is found mostly outside protected areas of two of South America’s most threatened biomes, the highly fragmented Atlantic Forest, whose natural cover remaining is around 8% and the savannahs, whose remaining area is <40%. In this way, conservation efforts should focus outside protected areas.

A declining global population of about 6,047 mature individuals of L. guttulus was estimated, given its expected maximum area of occupancy (AOO) and typical lower population densities (Oliveira 2011; Oliveira et al. 2010, 2013). Given the likely overestimation of the AOO, using the lower known density estimate values is warranted to compensate and avoid an unrealistic population overestimation. A future decline of 10–30% over the next 15-18 years (= three generations) is projected due to declining AOO (habitat loss) and habitat quality. Even though the Southern Tiger Cat is found in several protected areas, no conservation units within the species’ range in Brazil or elsewhere are expected to house 500 individuals, most far below 200 (Oliveira et al. 2008).