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Current threats as important drivers of decline for Güiñas include habitat loss/fragmentation and degradation and stochastic forest fires. There is evidence that there may be opportunistic killings (i.e. vía encounters and within chicken coups), disease transmission, domestic dog predation and roadkill as a source of mortality that may be having an impact. These more direct sources remain to be evaluated as to the overall impact on the population.

Historically the primary habitat (i.e. forest cover) in the Chilean Matorral ecosystem and temperate rainforest suffered important deforestation and landcover change (Lubert and Pliscoff 2017). There is evidence that the species suffered a bottleneck and subsequent loss of genetic diversity (Napolitano et al. 2014). In the northernmost part of its range, Güiñas inhabit the Chilean Matorral ecosystem, where more than half of the country’s total human population live and which has been dramatically reduced by habitat conversion to agricultural lands, leading to local extinctions and population fragmentation. Güiñas in the Northern-Central area have low genomic diversity, high homozygosity and low, recent declining Ne similar to what is reported in fragile populations such as the Iberian lynx (Lescroart et al. 2023). Güiñas occupy remnant sclerophyll forests in the coastal range mountains surrounding agricultural land in the northern distribution of the species (Beltrami et al. 2021, Napolitano et al. 2020). Central and Lake District populations have suffered from extensive and intensive habitat loss and fragmentation by land conversion to pine plantations and logging of the remnant temperate Valdivian rainforest (Willson et al. 2005, Echeverría et al. 2006, 2008). On Chiloé Island, native forests have been largely cleared and fragmented over large areas to support domestic fowl, grazing and farming, leaving only remnants of the original forest surrounded by a human-modified matrix (Armesto et al. 1998, Sanderson et al. 2002). In its southernmost range, human density is lower, there is a greater amount of forest cover and agricultural lands are more frequently surrounded by a concentration of protected areas. Similarly, in the Argentine portion of Güiñas range, the native forest is almost continuous, with a low degree of land-cover transformation, and nearly 75% of the area under protection (Monteverde et al. 2019).

In the last assessment (i.e. 2014) an estimate of an annual forest loss rate of 4.5% per year for the period 1975–2000 in a particular area of the Chilean temperate rainforests (Echeverría et al. 2006) was used as evidence of forest loss. However, in this assessment and evaluating the entire EOO of the species, we found that the amount and rate of forest loss between the year 2000 and 2022 has substantially declined (i.e. 0.2% annual loss compared to 4.5% of previous assessment), even increasing forest cover in some of the geographic groups. In the mapbiomas data base we found that the overall % change in area had a net reduction of 4% in primary habitat for the period (i.e. 2000-2022) with an annual rate of primary habitat loss of 0.2%. The different groups had the following annual % of change in forest cover 1) -0.4% for the Northern group, 2) -1.6% for the Central group, 3) -0.3% for the Lake district group, 4) an increase of 0.4% for Chiloé group, 5) 0.1% for the Argentinian group and 6) 0.2% for the Aysen group. The groups with the largest decrease in total forest cover area during the period were the Northern group with a reduction of 9% and the Central group with a reduction in 35%. For the Chiloe Island, Argentinian and Aysen groups there was annual increase of primary habitat during the period.

Forest fires may be the major driver in this loss of primary habitat discussed above and most likely represent highly negative stochastic events for the species. Particularly if we consider that the population estimates of the Central group and the Northern group with < 1,000 mature individuals (see population estimates). Fires have been increasing in a greater part of the distribution of the central and northern range of Güiñas. During 2017, central Chile had a megafire event in 92 locations totaling 529,794 hectares with high severity (De la Barrera et al. 2018). These fires reduced and degraded important habitat for the species such as shrub and forest plantations (Gúzman-Aguayo et al. 2023). In fact, probability of use-occupancy by the species is significantly reduced with increasing severity of wildfires (Osorio et al. 2021). Also, habitat, such as ravines with remnant native vegetation, in the northern distribution of the species are highly threatened by forest fires (Beltrami et al. 2021). Fires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in key areas of the species distribution (Castillo et al. 2020), particularly relevant for the L. guigna tigrillo Northern sub-species. In Argentina, between 2001 and 2017, 84% of the total loss of Patagonian forest area was due to fires, mostly concentrated in the Güiña’s distribution range in Neuquén, Río Negro and Chubut provinces (Mohr-Bell et. al.2019). It has been shown that the distribution range of Güiñas in both Chile and Argentina will decrease under climate change scenarios (Marquet et al. 2010, Cuyckens et al. 2015) where increased intensity of fire may be also an important consequence and detrimental to the primary habitat of the species.

In contrast to primary habitat, secondary habitat has had a net increase of 20% in surface area between the years 2000 and 2022, mainly driven by an increase within the Central group (44% increase) and driven by an increase in forest plantations (Proyecto MapBiomas Chile). The fact that the species can survive in these modified landscapes of forest plantations of central Chile (Gúzman-Aguayo et al. 2023), opens the possibility that this may offset the reduction in primary habitat. However, this may need to be further assessed with meta-population dynamics in these forestry production landscapes, considering that these habitats have high turnover due to the harvesting of trees with clear cutting methods. In turn, within southern Chile agricultural mosaics may be highly important to safeguard the future of the species. Particularly, considering that the large population of the Lake District group is key for the survival of the species due to estimated numbers. In the Lake District group there is increasing support that the species can have high occupancy values in agricultural lands with very low forest cover, with existing array of forest fragments. However, in these landscapes there is an increasing threat from subdivision of land mainly driven by urban expansion or peri-urban sprawl rather than retribution killing of the species (Gálvez et al. 2018, 2021a). In fact, urban infrastructure has had a 33,2% increase between 2000 and 2022 (Proyecto MapBiomas Chile). In addition to increased fragmentation and human modification due to increased subdivision that may influence species persistence in agricultural landscapes (Gálvez et al. 2018, 2021a), evidence suggests that increased landscape fragmentation is associated with reduced genetic diversity in Güiñas (Napolitano et al. 2015) which could further hinder population viability in the long-term.

Causes of direct mortality are also a threat to the species. Most people in rural landscapes of central and southern Chile have negative attitudes towards Güiñas, arguing livestock and poultry losses (Herrmann et al. 2013, Zorondo-Rodríguez et al. 2014), which could potentially end in retaliatory killings. 81.4% of 43 families interviewed in a rural area of southern Chile considered Güiñas “damaging" or "very damaging”, although there was only a single recent report of a Güiña killing 12 hens in a henhouse (Silva-Rodríguez et al. 2007). In a recent large scale socioecological study within agricultural landscapes of the Lake District geographic group it was documented that, from 233 people interviewed, encounters with Güiñas were rare, on average occurred 17 years ago, only 7% had lost poultry to the species in the last decade; even though the species occurred in >80% of the landscape from camera traps in those same places (Gálvez et al. 2018). In the same study it was estimated that 10% of respondents admitted to killing a Güiña in the last decade with specialized methods for sensitive questions (Gálvez et al. 2018, Gálvez et al. 2021c). However, on Chiloe Island, two out of seven radio-collared Güiñas were killed while raiding chicken coops (Sanderson et al. 2002). Retaliatory killings for poultry depredation accounted for 39.4% of the total 38 Güiña samples collected during a three-year study in Chiloé Island (Napolitano 2012, Napolitano et al. 2015). Direct persecution and attack by free-roaming dogs in human-dominated landscapes is also a threat for Güiñas. Dogs are an important conservation problem in Chile (Silva-Rodrígiez et al. 2023) and Güiñas have been reported to arrive injured by interactions with dogs at Wildlife Rescue Centers, and a high proportion of them die because of the severity of the injuries (Romero et al. 2019). For several species of mammals, including Güiñas, all animal interaction cases received in wildlife rescue centers were attacks by domestic dogs (Romero et al. 2019). It is also known that in these modified landscapes interspecific pathogen transmission from co-occurring domestic carnivores, cats and dogs, may also be a threat. Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) and Feline Leukemia Virus (FeLV) infection from domestic cat origin has been recorded in Güiñas inhabiting human perturbed landscapes across the species range (Mora et al. 2015, Sacristán et al. 2021) and also deadly Parvovirus infection from domestic dog origin (Ortega et al. 2021). Road kills also seem to be increasing as a death cause, especially in fragmented landscapes, where they accounted for 29% of the total 38 Güiña samples collected during a three-year study in Chiloé Island (Napolitano 2012, Napolitano et al. 2015). There needs to be roadkill data analysis across the distribution of the species to better understand this driver of mortality of individuals. It is not clear what the impact of direct mortality (i.e. retaliatory killings, diseases, attack by dogs and roadkill) for the populations.

If population estimates show a decline in the future, but habitat area (primary and secondary) remains stable, it could be an early indication that these sources of mortality may be having relatively larger impacts. However, in general, the evidence presented above points towards habitat-based threats as a more important threat to the species survival than direct mortality, although these may be additive and must also be included in conservation action plans. The threats discussed above should guide conservation action for the species.

Included in CITES Appendix II and protected by national legislation in Argentina and Chile (Nowell and Jackson 1996). Using a broad approach for population distinctiveness based on genetic and ecological exchangeability (Crandall et al. 2000), two management units were proposed for the conservation of Güiñas, which correspond to the two identified subspecies (Napolitano et al. 2014). Within these management units six genetic groups are identified, displaying significant variation in patterns of genetic diversity, biogeographic history, available ecological habitats and conservation threats among them. Güiñas are recorded in 16 protected areas in Chile, but many are too small to support viable populations (Acosta-Jammett et al. 2003). In Argentina, it is known from three national parks: Lanin, Nahuel Huapi, Lago Puelo and Los Alerces (Monteverde et al. 2019), although densities may be low. The spatial extent of protected areas alone is not enough for the long-term viability of Güiña populations, thus incorporating private lands outside protected areas is crucial for Güiña conservation (Simonetti and Acosta-Jamett 2002, Acosta-Jamett et al. 2003, Haines et al. 2006, Gálvez et al. 2013).

Conservation action should work to foster positive perceptions, attitudes and higher tolerance of landowners and rural people towards Güiñas which is currently quite negative (Gálvez et al. 2021c, Silva-Rodríguez et al. 2007, Herrmann et al. 2013). Future conservation challenges for Güiñas outside protected areas will hinge on fostering positive attitudes of landowners towards Güiñas, increasing local awareness and participation to reduce conflict in areas where they are considered poultry pests, improving chicken coops and highlighting the services provided by its role as controller of mice carriers of Hanta virus and exotic European Hares (Lepus europaeus; Silva-Rodriguez et al. 2007, Gálvez et al. 2013, Napolitano et al. 2014). These efforts may decrease direct mortality of individuals.

In the Northern and Central groups, fire prevention, improved management of forest plantations to permit flow of individuals and maintenance of understory habitat structure, and further protection of native forest remnants will be key actions. Also, restoration of degraded areas, burned or otherwise could have an important impact on the population. Public policy oriented towards these targets will have benefits for biodiversity under scenarios of climate change (Marquet et al. 2019) and the Güiña. For example, initiatives from the wine and fruit industry to protect remnant Mediterranean sclerophyllous forests in surrounding hillsides (Gárcía et al. 2021; Márquez-García et al. 2018, 2019) will be important for the persistence of the small population in these geographic groups. Forest fire prevention in these areas is most likely good conservation investment. This is also true for the Argentinian group.

In southern Chile, apart from protection of existing forests in the Coastal and Andean cordilleras, agricultural lands require specific policy-oriented interventions. An array of small fragments will permit the species persistence in these landscapes (Gálvez et al. 2018). Also, the mitigation of urban sprawl or the subdivision of land in agricultural areas without any clear public policy may be impacting the populations (Gálvez et al. 2018, 2021a). The outcome of current discussions regarding public policy of agricultural land subdivision may have a large impact on the species. Also, conservation efforts should focus on preserving vegetation corridors to facilitate connectivity between forest fragments or larger forested areas, along with providing safe road passages to decrease mortality by road kills (Dunstone et al. 2002, Sanderson et al. 2002, Gálvez et al. 2013). Vegetation corridors are essential to maintain viable Güiña populations for their long-term survival in increasingly fragmented landscapes.

Further studies are required on the species ecology, demographics, natural history, and relative importance of threats (IUCN Cats Red List workshop 2007). We need improved estimates of density throughout the range to reduce uncertainty of population estimates. Regarding diseases, future studies should include elucidating the potential pathological effect and emerging disease risk Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) and Feline Leukemia Virus (FeLV) and parvovirus infections may have for Güiña populations. Finally, the importance of roadkill should be assessed and hotspots identified where speed reduction interventions may be implemented.

Currently, the Güiña working group (https://guigna.org/) brings together academia, practitioners, NGO´s and professionals working for the national wildlife and forestry authorities in support and to conduct actions to reduce threats across the species range including education, roadkill mitigation, habitat protection among others.