Loup gris

Due to the diversity in climate, topography, vegetation, patterns of human settlement and historical development of the wolf range, wolf populations in various parts of the original range vary dramatically in density. Wolf densities normally vary from about one per 12 km² to less than one per 120 km² (Mech and Boitani 2003). The overall European wolf population can be viewed as a large metapopulation with several distinct fragments, although dispersal could theoretically connect almost all fragments, and connections are being re-established in many areas. Following the bottleneck of the 1960s and 1970s, the European wolf population is generally increasing in number and expanding its distribution range. However, some European populations are still small and not all have more than 1,000 animals (see below for specific details). Dispersing animals can potentially be found anywhere in mainland Europe. The number of wolves in Europe (excluding Russia) is likely to exceed 21,500, and the total number of wolves in the EU 27 region is likely to be in the order of 19,000; some of the populations are continuous with wolf populations living in countries outside the EU.

1. Iberian
Population size: about 2,500 individuals (2024-2990) and rather stable. The Iberian Wolf (Canis lupus ssp. signatus) may be a distinct subspecies. After the population reduction up to the 1960s, it has increased dramatically since the 1970s and has been stable or slightly increasing in the last ten years and expanding its range across central Spain. The population occupies most of northwestern Iberia and is expanding south and east after having crossed the Duero River in Spain. There are two distinct population segments within this population. The largest is that north of the Duero River in both Spain and Portugal. South of the Duero in Portugal there is a small population segment of around 50 wolves which has only limited exchange of animals with the segments north of the Duero in Portugal and east to the Spanish segment south of the Duero.

The nearest wolf population is in the western Alps and connections between the two are limited to rare known cases. In the Pyrenees (regions of Cataluña and Aragón) there are currently a few non-reproducing wolves that have been genetically identified as members of the Alpine population from where they are assumed to have dispersed naturally (Alvares et al. 2015, Blanco and Cortés 2012, Jiménez et al. 2016, López-Bao et al. 2018, Torres and Fonseca 2016).

The isolated Sierra Morena subpopulation in southern Spain has (virtually) disappeared.

2. Western-Central Alps
Population size: c.1,900 wolves. This population is of Italian Apennines origin and all wolves share the same distinctive Italian genetic haplotype. Individual wolves dispersing from the Apennines first colonised the Alps in 1992 and succeeded in establishing a permanent and expanding population which shows a highly dynamic spatial pattern spreading towards the west and north (and then to the east along the Alpine arc). New packs are regularly reported in Switzerland where there are about 150 wolves. More recently (2015) dispersing individuals from Dinaric-Balkans and the western Alps formed a pack in the central Alps. The total number in 2015/2016 was estimated to be about 420-550 wolves (65 packs and 12 pairs; WAG 2018, Marucco et al. 2012); in 2017/18 it was estimated to be 550-700, increasing on average by 10-20% per year. The genetic continuity with the Apennines population has been recently assessed at 1.25-2.5 individuals per generation, all of them moving from the Apennines to the Alpine population (Fabbri et al. 2007). In 2005, a young radio-marked wolf dispersed more than 1,300 km from Parma (Italy) to Nice (France), providing a demonstration of the natural dispersal along the northern Apennines range to the Alps. In spite of the continuity between the two populations (Apennine and Alpine), their ecological and socio-economic contexts are sufficiently different to justify a separation into two functional population units for management purposes (LCIE 2007, Marucco et al. 2017; http://www.lifewolfalps.eu/).

3. Italian peninsula
Population size: 2,020-2,645 wolves (Aragno et al. 2022). The population was described in 1921 (Altobello 1921) and confirmed in 1999 (Nowak 1999) as a distinct subspecies (Canis lupus italicus). It is genetically recognised by the presence of a unique mtDNA haplotype. After the population bottleneck of the 1960s, when total numbers were estimated to be about 100 animals, the population has steadily recovered throughout the Apennines and expanded into the western Alps. In 2006, the population was estimated to be 500-800; estimates in 2017 suggested numbers to be 1,100-2,400 with an estimate of 1,600 probably being close to the real number. However, the difference between the 2006, 2017 and 2021 estimates are also due to improved estimation methods. The nearest population (apart from that in the western Alps, see above) is in Slovenia (Dinaric-Balkan population). Although a large portion of the central Alps and part of the agricultural Po River valley effectively separate the Italian peninsula and the Dinaric populations, the current trend suggests the inevitable continuity between them (Galaverni et al. 2015, Boitani and Salvatori 2016).

4. Dinaric-Balkan
Population size: 5,000-5,500. There is continuity of the population and suitable habitats throughout the range although the population might be significantly sub-structured within this massive elongated range. Although the population is estimated to number about 5,000 individuals, locally the densities may vary greatly and its overall demographic trend is unknown. In Croatia and Slovenia, the population has recovered significantly following improved management in the 1990s. In Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina (Trbojević 2016) it is likely that the population has decreased in recent years due to overharvesting. To the north, the population has increasing functional contacts with the nearest population in Italy, and dispersing animals are reported in Austria. One dispersing male successfully established a pair and a territory in Veneto (northern Italy) with a mate from the western-central Alps population. To the east, the population may exchange individuals with the large wolf population of the Carpathians which extends into northern Bulgaria and eastern Serbia (Iliopoulos 1999; Kusak et al. 2005; Štrbenac et al. 2005; Jeremic et al. 2014, 2015, 2016; Trbojević 2016).

5. Carpathian
This population is estimated to number c. 3,900-4,700 animals, the majority of them living in Romania and Ukraine. The differences between the 2006 and 2017 estimates are partly due to improved estimation methods. Slovakia hosts about 600 wolves and southern Poland contributes with good wolf habitat in the areas along its southern borders (the wolf population in the Polish Carpathians is about 300 individuals). In the past, there was natural continuity with wolves living in northern Poland and Belarus, but this link is now constrained by large areas where wolves have been exterminated. Nevertheless, it is likely that some level of genetic exchange still occurs with the Dinaric-Balkan population in western Bulgaria / eastern Serbia, and with the Baltic population in eastern-central Poland (Okarma 1993; CLCP 1997-98, 2000, 2001, 2002; Smietana and Wajda 1997, Okarma et al. 2000, Shkvyrya 2008, Cazacu et al. 2014, Pirga et al. 2016, Rigg et al. 2014).

6. Baltic
Subpopulation size: about 2,190-2,790 in EU countries and an additional 1,000-1,500 in Belarus and 1,600 in the adjacent Russian oblasts. At the start of the 20th century the population was greatly reduced, but still widely present, these increased during and after World War 1. In the period between the wars, populations were greatly reduced again, but recovered to peak levels during and after World War II, only to be heavily persecuted in the 1950s such that they again reached very low levels in the 1960s and early 1970s. The populations appear to have then increased, peaking in the early 1990s – before being reduced again in the late 1990s. This population is the westernmost portion of the large Russian population and it ultimately connects with the wolf range of Russian Karelia. In Poland, although the distribution is not continuous, it is highly likely that dispersal regularly connects the Baltic and Central European populations. The recent building of fences against human migrations effectively reduce the continuity of this population with the Belarus/Russian population (Bluzma 2000, Sidorovich et al. 2003, Linnell et al. 2006, Nowak and Mysłajek 2016, Bragina et al. 2018, Ozolins et al. 2011, Kawata et al. 2013, Geldon et al. 2015).

7. Karelian
Population size: 275-315 wolves in Finland and about 750 including Finland and Russian Karelia. Following widespread control of the population in the first part of 20th century, the population recovered after the 1980s and 1990s. The current estimates are based on counts of family groups in Finland and the population is expanding. In Russian Karelia, wolf numbers appear to be stable.

8. Scandinavian
Population size: 550 (CI = 364 – 598). The population derives from a pair that immigrated from Finland and first reproduced in Sweden in 1983. A third immigrant in 1991 boosted the reproduction and the population is now estimated to be 460 wolves (about 85 in Norway). The population has been steadily increasing from 1983-2001, then slightly decreased in 2002-3, and then is increasing again. In winter 2023 it has been reduced by the removal of at least 75 animals. There is evidence of limited further genetic exchanges with the Finnish/Russian wolf population after 1991. Immigration from Russia / Finland is the only possible mechanism to increase the genetic variability of the population which is critical for its future viability (Chapron et al. 2016; Svensson et al. 2017; Wabakken et al. 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016).

9. Central European
Population size: 1,850. Wolves were exterminated in Germany during the 19th century, but individuals that were dispersing from Poland were shot occasionally throughout the 20th century. In the late-1990s a pack began breeding in Saxony and there are now (2022) at least 160 packs. Wolves in western Poland have had a dynamic history of persecution and heavy harvest with periods of total absence and very low numbers in 1950 - 1990s, but since 2000 the population started to recover from immigrants originating in eastern Poland and presently there are about 550 wolves in the region. Three packs were confirmed in Czechia in 2016 /2017 (Kutal et al. 2017, Hulva et al. 2018) and they have grown to 16 in 2022. This population is highly dynamic and dispersing animals have reached Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands where the first packs are now permanently present. Connections exist to the Baltic population, but the distances are in the order of up to several hundred kilometres (Fechter and Storch 2015; Reinhardt et al. 2015; Sunde and Olsen 2017; Nowak and Myslajek 2016, 2017; Nowak et al. 2017).