Guépard

In a recent global assessment by Durant et al. (2017), the known remaining Cheetah populations were estimated to be confined to 9% of their historical distributional range. These authors estimated the Cheetah population at around 6,517 mature individuals (7,100 adult and adolescent animals) distributed over 3,100,000 km². A recent independent study by Weise et al. (2017), using an extensive database of georeferenced sightings, estimated the Cheetah population within the southern African countries of Zimbabwe, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana, at 3,577 adults and adolescents (Weise et al. 2017), compared with 4,032 estimated for the same countries by Durant et al. (2017).

The population estimates presented here are derived from Durant et al. (2017) and Weise et al. (2017), except where stated. These estimates are based on expert information from in-depth surveys and monitoring wherever possible. This was particularly the case for the estimates in southern Africa (IUCN SSC 2007a,b, 2012, 2015; Durant et al. 2017). Where expert-based information was not available, population estimates were extrapolated by applying density estimates from comparable areas with known density to polygons of resident range as mapped during conservation strategy workshops (see #s 1 to 4) below). Density estimates were conservative, since sites where abundance is unknown may face higher pressures than sites where there is better information on abundance (Durant et al. 2017). Density estimates in both studies refer to adults and independent adolescents only, and do not include cubs. Four density estimates were used (below) and resulting figures were then adjusted to represent only the number of mature individuals in the population:

1. Well-managed, relatively productive, protected areas (PAs). Density was estimated at one individual per 100 km², which falls on the low end of the range for highly productive, well managed PAs (1.3–2.5 per 100 km², Broekhuis and Gopalaswamy 2016, Marnewick et al. 2014, Durant et al. 2011). We picked this figure as the referenced estimates appear atypically high, and come from some of the most productive and best managed protected areas in Africa (the Serengeti Mara ecosystem and Kruger National Park). It is unlikely that any other protected areas can achieve densities even at the low end of this range, either because they are less well managed, or because they are less productive.
2. Areas that are largely unprotected or are under threat. Density was estimated at 0.25 individuals per 100 km², corresponding to the lower bound on the density range found on Namibian farmlands (range 0.25 to 0.83 per 100 km²; Marker 2002);
3. The Sahara. Density was estimated at 0.025 individuals per 100 km², using the only available estimate in this habitat from the Algerian Sahara (Belbachir et al. 2015).
4. Two subpopulations in West and Central Africa which do not align to categories 1–3. Density was estimated at 0.1 individual per 100 km², consistent with a density higher than that found in the desert, but lower than that found in Namibian farmlands, in line with the elevated pressures and direct threats in these regions due to high rates of habitat encroachment and illegal activities.

The population estimates so derived for Cheetah presented here, including the expert based estimates, should be treated with extreme caution and are provided as an indication only. Density and abundance estimates for Cheetah are imprecise, and a small change in mean density estimation could result in a large overall change in population estimates. Thus, the estimates are extremely tentative and comparisons with previous estimates (which were also very tentative and based on even weaker data) are unreliable. Nonetheless, these recent studies provide the best available information at the global level.

Number of mature individuals in the population was calculated using estimates from the long-term study of individually known cheetahs in the Serengeti (Durant et al. 2004). Using a stable age structure model, and assuming 1) half of all 1–2 year olds in a population are independent at 18–24 months; and 2) that there is a 2:1 ratio of adult females to males, we calculate that 8.2% of a population estimate of independent Cheetahs (adults and adolescents) constitutes individuals of 18–24 months. We thus use the equation MI = N - (N*0.082), to calculate the number of mature individuals older than two years (MI) where N is the estimated number of adults and adolescents.

Southern Africa
Southern Africa is a global stronghold for Cheetah, holding a tentative estimate of 3,526 mature individuals distributed across at least 11 subpopulations (from Durant et al. 2017, Weise et al. 2017). A large centre of distribution comprises the majority of the regional population, ca 3,396 mature individuals, distributed across a large transboundary landscape covering southern Botswana, Namibia, southern Angola, northern South Africa and south-western Mozambique. The remaining subpopulations in the southern Africa region are much smaller: 60 mature individuals in Kafue National Park, Zambia; 46 in and around Hwange National Park; 42 in Gonarezhou National Park and Save Conservancy; 37 spread across three conservancies in southern Zimbabwe; 18 in Liuwa Plains, Zambia; 11 in the Zambezi valley; nine in Banhine National Park, Mozambique; four in Rhino Conservancy Zimbabwe; 24 in the Moxico region in central Angola; and three in Matusadona, Zimbabwe (Durant et al. 2017). The latter subpopulation has decreased substantially after a reintroduction of Cheetah in the mid-1990s and may indicate poor long-term viability of isolated Cheetah populations in small areas (Purchase 1998, Purchase and du Toit 2000, Purchase et al. 2006). A large proportion (75%) of the estimated resident range in the region is outside protected areas, on lands ranched primarily for livestock but also for wild game (IUCN SSC 2015, Purchase et al. 2007). Larger competitors, such as Lions and Spotted Hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), have been extirpated from much of this range.

For the purposes of this assessment, Cheetah populations are considered to be ‘wild’ when they are not intensively managed, in line with the guidelines of IUCN SSC (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2019; see also Redford et al. 2011). Intensive management of Cheetah (such as frequent translocation of individuals for genetic management) is necessary in reserves smaller than 1,000 km² that are surrounded by impermeable fencing. There are around 330 Cheetah in an intensively managed free-ranging meta-population distributed across small fenced reserves in South Africa (Buk et al. 2018) and, more recently, in Liwonde National Park in Malawi (Dasgupta 2017). These Cheetah have been excluded from the overall population estimates in line with the IUCN SSC guidelines. However, when such populations are well managed, such as the South African Cheetah meta-population, in ways that allow a wide range of natural behaviours of Cheetah, including hunting, such populations can make a valuable contribution to ‘wild’ populations by providing individuals for well-planned restorations.

Eastern Africa
The Eastern Africa Cheetah population is estimated at 2,102 mature individuals distributed across 14 subpopulations (from Durant et al. 2017). Only one of these subpopulations is estimated to number more than 200 mature individuals. In descending order of estimated population size the 15 subpopulations are: 1,250 mature individuals in the Serengeti/Mara/Tsavo/Laikipia landscape in Kenya and northern Tanzania; 184 in the Ruaha landscape in central Tanzania; 175 in a transboundary population through southern Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan and northern Kenya; 135 in Southern National Park in South Sudan; 78 in Badingilo National Park in South Sudan; 62 in Radom National Park in South Sudan; 55 in the Katavi-Ugalla landscape in Tanzania; 47 in the Maasai steppe in Tanzania; 33 in South Turkana in Kenya; 29 in the Ogaden landscape in Ethiopia; 18 in Blen-Afar Landscape in Ethiopia; 17 in the Kidepo National Park in Uganda and bordering areas in South Sudan; 10 in the Afar landscape in Ethiopia; and seven in the Yangudi Rassa landscape in Ethiopia (recalculated from Durant et al. 2017). A substantial proportion (75.4%) of Cheetah range in Eastern Africa is outside protected areas, on lands that are largely occupied by traditional pastoralist communities (Durant et al. 2017), where cheetah face elevated threats from retaliatory killings; unsustainable rangeland management leading to a loss of prey; and minimal protection against other illegal killings (e.g. for trade).

Western, Central and Northern Africa
The number of Cheetah in western, central and northern Africa is tentatively estimated at 419 mature individuals distributed across four populations (from Durant et al. 2017). These are: 218 mature individuals in Bahr/Salama landscape in Chad and CAR; 175 in the Adrar des Ifhogas / Ahaggar / Tassili N’Ajjer landscape in Algeria and Mali; 23 in the WAP complex in Benin, Niger and Burkina Faso; two in Air et Ténéré connected to another 1–2 mature individuals in the Termit Massif, both in Niger. As in the other regions, the majority of the population (83%) is outside protected areas, on lands that are largely occupied by traditional sedentary and semi-nomadic pastoralist communities (IUCN SSC 2012, Belbachir et al. 2015). Many of these areas face unsustainable killing of wild ungulates, particularly close to settlements, and unsustainable management of the desert landscapes, alongside a risk of illegal killing of Cheetahs.

Asia
In Asia, Cheetah are now confined to Iran, and comprise the subspecies A. j. venaticus. A recent comprehensive review of available information on Cheetah in Iran has raised concerns of a dangerous ongoing decline in Cheetah numbers, (Farhadinia et al. 2017) which confirms that the population size is estimated to be less than 50 mature individuals (Khalatbari et al. 2017). The imprisonment in January 2018 of key individuals who have been most active in improving the conservation outlook for Asiatic Cheetah, and the lack of conservation activity since, diminishes hopes of any recovery of this population (Long 2019).

Global population
The total known Cheetah population is therefore tentatively estimated at around 6,517 mature individuals. However, with home ranges documented in excess of 3,000 km² (Marker et al. 2008, Weise et al. 2015), movements of translocated animals exceeding 1,000 km (Weise et al.2015) and densities seldom exceeding two per 100 km², the combination of wide-ranging behaviour and low densities make the estimation of Cheetah population size (and hence threat status) extremely challenging. Moreover, all existing estimates of density and abundance come from either protected areas (e.g. Kruger National Park, Moremi Game Reserve, Serengeti National Park), or from areas where there are active Cheetah conservation organizations working across large areas (e.g. the Namibian farmlands that are the focus of the Cheetah Conservation Fund). Few of these estimates provide the time series data needed to estimate population trends. There are also few reliable estimates of density or abundance from sites where Cheetah populations are most threatened and likely to be in steep decline (the exception being a repeated country-wide survey of the cheetah population in Zimbabwe; van der Meer 2016). As such, quantitative estimates of population trends are largely unknown; however, of 18 populations where trends could be assigned, 14 were assessed to be in decline, three were stable, and only one could have been increasing (Durant et al. 2017).

The combination of large home range, low density and biased data (from areas where Cheetah are least threatened), poses a serious challenge to the assessment of threat for this species. This challenge is further exacerbated by the finding that the majority of known Cheetah range (77%) and Cheetah population (67%) are on unprotected lands. Here Cheetah are particularly vulnerable to multiple threats, including increased pressures from habitat loss and fragmentation; widespread human-wildlife conflict; prey loss resulting from overhunting and bushmeat harvesting and illegal trade (IUCN/SSC 2007a, 2012, 2015). Even within PAs, because of edge effects and poor law enforcement, Cheetah remain highly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures. In these landscapes Cheetah live alongside some of the most marginalized and vulnerable people in the world.

These rural human communities, already under pressure, are expected to grow rapidly over the next three decades (United Nations 2017, Gerland et al. 2014), which will place unprecedented pressures on habitats, wildlife and ecosystems. A recent assessment has documented extinction of Cheetah from 11 out of 15 protected areas (PAs) in West and Central Africa (73% of site extinction) (Brugiere et al. 2015). In Zimbabwe, Cheetah populations have collapsed by 85% and the species has disappeared from 63% of its distributional range over the last 10–15 years (van der Meer 2018). Moreover, Cheetah have been extirpated from much of Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Zambia, Sudan, Somalia and Angola (IUCN SSC 2007a, 2015), most probably over just the last few decades. It is likely that Cheetah populations in many countries are facing similar steep declines due to rapid land use change and rising intolerance of Cheetah outside PAs (van der Meer 2018), as well as a massive bushmeat trade, which has removed prey from large tracts of Cheetah range (Lindsey et al. 2013). This wider context is key to the interpretation of a recent in-depth examination of Cheetah status by Durant et al. (2017).

The global population of Cheetah is highly fragmented. Of the 33 populations that still survive, only two have an estimated size of more than 1,000 mature individuals (Durant et al. 2017). The analysis by Weise et al. (2017) suggests that the largest population of Cheetah in southern Africa is likely to be more fragmented than that depicted in Durant et al. (2017). Furthermore, two thirds of populations comprise fewer than 100 mature individuals and, even more worryingly, six populations do not even reach double digits. It is likely that, without urgent conservation intervention, many of the smaller populations will go extinct over the next 1–2 decades.

Previous IUCN threat assessments and problems with trend estimation:
The lack of reliable data on population trends for Cheetah, particularly in past IUCN Red List threat assessments, has led to the use of distributional range as an index of population size. However, because Cheetahs are wide-ranging, distributional range estimates are likely to be weakly correlated with population abundance. This is because an area may appear to be widely occupied by Cheetah through reliable observations, yet the density could be extremely low (Belbachir et al.2015). For example, if well protected and productive, an area of 10,000 km² could support up to 250 individual Cheetah, whereas, if the area is unproductive and/or subject to high levels of anthropogenic pressures, it is likely to hold only 4–20 individuals (Belbachir et al. 2015, Weise et al. 2018). This problem is further compounded by the fact that current distributional range is delimited using observational records collected over the previous decade; thus older data may mask recent rapid declines.

The problems inherent in the data available on population size and trends for Cheetah, particularly with respect to historic information, means that comparisons of current estimates with previous estimates to infer population trends are unreliable. In the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment, estimates of past distributional range reduction were 29% over the past 15 years, assuming a constant rate of contraction over the last 100 years. This range collapse, when projected forwards, predicted a further reduction of 28% over the next 15 years (stated as more than 10% in the assessment text). However, it is likely that the observed range collapse has accelerated through time, with the steepest collapse occurring most recently. Durant et al. (2017) simulated the global Cheetah population by setting the initial population equal to a rounded estimated population of 7,000 individuals, of which 33% occurs in PAs. Populations were simulated over time under a range of scenarios with growth rates less than replacement outside PAs; with varying rates of movement inside and outside PAs; and with populations stable within PAs (Durant et al. 2004, Chauvenet et al. 2011). There is a projected decline of a past and inferred decline tentatively estimated at 21–51% between 2008 to 2023 (three generations); a past and inferred decline of 14-38% between 2008 to 2018 (two generations) and a past decline of 8–21% between 2008 to 2013 (one generation; Durant et al. 2017). Moreover, simulations showed that declines of more than 50% were likely over the next three Cheetah generations or 15 years (generation data from Durant et al. 2004) if the growth rate was 10% less than replacement outside PAs. Such a decline in global population size raises concerns that the Cheetah population could meet the IUCN Red List Category of Endangered under Criterion A3b [a population size reduction of >=50% projected or suspected to be met within the next three generations based on an index of abundance]. Sensitivity analysis showed that growth rates within PAs needed to be 8% or higher to counteract such a decline. Whilst higher growth rates are theoretically possible; in practice, Cheetah within PAs suffer from high levels of predation from other, larger, predators such as lions and spotted hyenas (Laurenson et al. 1994, Durant et al. 2004). Such predation, combined with limitations imposed by prey availability, prevents high growth rates. In the Serengeti National Park female Cheetahs are only just able to replace themselves (Laurenson 1995, Chauvenet et al. 2011).

The results from simulated projections of the global Cheetah population are consistent with regional evidence of recent steep population decline. In Zimbabwe, Cheetah distributional range contracted by 11% per year between 2007 and 2015, while the population has collapsed by 85% over a similar period, from an estimated minimum of 1,520 cheetahs in 1999 to only 150–170 Cheetahs in 2015 (IUCN/SSC 2007b, 2015, van der Meer 2018). Almost all this loss has occurred outside of protected areas (van der Meer 2018).

While Zimbabwe has been subject to recent rapid land use change from wildlife-based land use to agricultural use, which is likely responsible for the steep decline in Cheetah, rapid declines leading to extirpation across large areas have also been observed in western Africa (Brugiere et al. 2015). Elsewhere in Africa, predicted rapid growth in human populations (United Nations 2017) and associated pressures on natural resources means that similar patterns of Cheetah population collapse are likely to be repeated across many countries over the coming decades. Durant et al. (2017) used their analysis to develop a decision tree to help categorise ‘protection reliant’ species such as Cheetah, that are dependent on active conservation for their survival, but which have substantial distributional range outside PAs where they are vulnerable to rapid anthropogenic change.